Turning point: Germans lose faith in US as NATO ally and turn to defence, study shows

 Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the German military (Bundeswehr) has returned to the centre of political debate in Germany, amid arguments over rearmament, conscription and vast increases in defence spending.

But how do Germans actually view their armed forces and has public opinion shifted in recent years?

Dr Timo Graf, a senior researcher at the Bundeswehr's Centre for Military History and Social Sciences in Potsdam, explored those questions in his study, "Germany in a Military Leadership Role? Public Opinion on Security and Defence Policy in the Federal Republic of Germany 2025."

The research forms part of a long-running annual survey series dating back to 1996.

Conducted independently of day-to-day political events, it offers a rare insight into how German attitudes towards security, defence and the military have evolved over time. Using around 300 questions, the study examines public opinion on foreign policy, defence and security issues, as well as perceptions of the Bundeswehr itself.

Dr Graf: Since 2022, we've seen a genuine Zeitenwende (turning point) in the way Germans think about defence. In 2025, the clearest trend in the data was the sharp decline in trust in the United States as a NATO ally.

Depending on the specific question, trust dropped by as much as 28 percentage points. At the same time, the figures point to a growing willingness among Germans to invest more in the country’s own defence capabilities.

Before 2022, support for higher defence spending was relatively modest. It then rose sharply after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and has remained just below 60% ever since. We subsequently saw a further boost driven by the so-called "Trump effect."

Last year alone, support increased by another seven percentage points to 65%, the highest level recorded since 1996.

Dr Graf: On the one hand, that's entirely plausible. When we conducted the survey in spring 2025, Trump had only just returned to office. At that stage, there was more of an expectation that relations could become more difficult again, particularly in relation to NATO and European security.

Even then, however, the damage to the US image in our survey was striking. Since then, we’ve had Greenland, the war in Iran, further criticism of NATO and Europe from Washington, as well as the US approach to Russia's war against Ukraine. You would expect all of that to influence public perceptions of the United States. That said, I haven’t seen this year’s data yet, as the survey is still ongoing. Nor would I necessarily expect another shift on the scale we saw last year, with declines of more than 20 percentage points. In absolute terms, trust is already at a very low level.

On some questions, only around a third of respondents still view the US as a reliable partner at all. So while there may well be further declines on individual issues, I don’t think we’ll see another drop comparable to last year's. Otherwise, trust would effectively have to fall close to zero and I don't think that's realistic.

My impression is that public opinion has now consolidated around a relatively hard core of committed transatlanticists and that group is unlikely to shrink much further.

Dr Graf: No, not really. Germans tend to view the relationship with the US in a fairly pragmatic and nuanced way. We ask a broad range of questions on the issue. While support for statements such as "the US is a reliable partner for Germany" has fallen by 28 percentage points, other findings paint a more nuanced picture. For instance, 58 % still agree that the US should remain involved in Europe's defence, while only 18 % disagree.

That suggests a clear majority of Germans still recognise that Europe, and Germany in particular, remains heavily reliant on the United States when it comes to security. You can see the same pattern in attitudes towards nuclear deterrence. Around 46% still support keeping US nuclear weapons stationed in Germany as a deterrent against Russia. Support for that position has even risen slightly.

Taken together, the picture is not contradictory. Even under Trump, many Germans would still prefer to have the US on their side, if that remains politically feasible. At the same time, there is a growing awareness of just how dependent Europe, and Germany in particular, still is on American military capabilities.